Why Blackburn will stay up....

On last night's Sportsdesk on Forge Radio (www.forgeradio.com) I said I thought Blackburn Rovers would get relegated, 2nd from bottom, on 13 points, 5 points off safety and with a manager out of his depth.
Well I will now officially change my mind. This afternoon Paul Ince was sacked as "guv'nor" at Ewood Park (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/blackburn_rovers/7784967.stm). Quite right I say. The pressure in the Premier League is such that if you don't get results you will lose your job. Those in charge at West Brom must be happy with the good football being played at The Hawthorns, because, if they were bothered about results, Tony Mowbray would have been sacked a couple of weeks ago.

The fact is that Ince has taken a squad that finished 7th (albeit without David Bentley) and turned them into relegation fodder. We've seen how Harry Redknapp has turned round the fortunes of Pompey and then Spurs (though it didn't work with Southampton). A change of manager works. Sunderland lost Roy Keane after he had lost the changing room and they go on and romp to a 4-0 win over West Brom. It seems that nowadays it is a change of manager more than a big signing that will change the fortunes of a club. Of course, it has always been the case that a team plays better under a new boss because they're trying to impress and keep their place in the side. But reputation works wonders for the most part nowadays. Redknapp, Keane when he took over at Sunderland, and to a much lesser extent Gianfranco Zola have all used their "stock" in the game to influence their squads. If you were a West Ham player, who would you rather play for - Alan Curbishley? Or Former player of the year Zola? I know which I would choose.

On the other hand reputation can quickly turn on you. Tony Adams is finding life hard at Portsmouth, despite him being a former England captain and a hero to many across the country. His short-lived dalliance at Wycombe a few years ago may have over taken his achievements as a player in the eyes of his squad, or maybe it's just the lack of the "Harry factor." I can see Adams being in deep pressure as the season goes on, so too Mark Hughes, whose Man City sit out of the relegation zone on goal difference alone. Admittedly Hughes should be able to spend big to get out of trouble next month, but, will anything less than a UEFA Cup spot be enough for the sheiks at Eastlands?

Blackburn find themselves in a difficult position now. They have to compete with Sunderland for a manager, with The Black Cats being arguably a more attractive proposition. Allardyce, Curbishley, Souness will all be names bandied around for both jobs, it will be interesting to see who gets who. It needs to be done soon though. The month long transfer window now means that mid-December becomes silly season for managerial casualties as boards aim to get a new man in before the window opens. I predict more sackings as the month goes on, maybe not in the Premier League but certainly in the Championship, where Jim Magilton, Glenn Roeder and Jan Poortvielt must all be close to the chop.

If you tuned in yesterday you will have heard my predictions for relegation and european qualification in the top tier, as well as promotion and relegation in the championship. Well I'm happy to stand by my 2nd tier predictions as we're half way through the season, but I will hold fire until I publish my thoughts on the Premier League in this blog. For the record, my Championship predictions look like this:

1. Birmingham
2. Wolves
3. Reading
4. Sheffield United
5. Crystal Palace
6. Cardiff City

22. Norwich City
23. Nottingham Forest
24. Doncaster Rovers

Let me know what you think, and if you want to make any predictions for the top tier, then let me know as well. As always you can comment on this blog or email online.sport@forgetoday.com. Good luck if you're in sporting action this week and have a happy christmas.

Ben